Thursday, October 1, 2009

Getting In Ahead of the Game

Yesterday's GDP data came in better than expected, showing that although the greatest economy on Earth is still contracting, it's doing so at a slower rate:


-0.7% (actual) -1.2% (expected) -1.0% (previous month)


This morning's jobless claims numbers was basically a wash, coming in as expected, however, pending home sales for the month blew expectations out of the water:


GMT 14:00 PM USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (AUG)
6.4% (actual) 1.0% (expected) 3.2% (previous month)


Tomorrow is the all-important NFP and Unemployment Rate figures, probably the single biggest market-moving data of the month. There are modest expectations going into tomorrow, so the stage is set for a potential nice surprise.
The USD/JPY showed a reversal bar off the daily chart this past Monday (highlighted in the chart shown). This is a good level to get in, ahead of the NFP report tomorrow, in anticipation of a potential reversal. Support lies at the 88 level, making for approximately a 150 pip risk trade. If the reversal takes place, USD/JPY can easily go up to the 92-93.50 level, creating a very favorable risk/reward bet.

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