Wednesday, July 15, 2009

EUR/CHF - Pick Up the Pieces

After missing out on the USD/JPY rally yesterday, as it never retraced enough for me to take on the risk, I'm going to pick up the pieces and move on... EUR/CHF is not the most popular pair in the forex world to trade, but it seems to be falling into a nice setup. The pair rallied over 100 pips in a 24 hour period, which not only isn't unusual but pales in comparison to the 300-plus pip rally the EUR/JPY enjoyed in the same period. Around 2:00am EST, EUR/CHF nose-dived 40 pips and proceded to glide down to the 1.5150 level, which is about a 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement from yesterday's rally and where both the 100 and 200 day EMAs lie.








I labeled the 1.5100 level as the first major support level, seen from the daily chart.







For further confirmation, the weekly chart shows a bullish flag that's been forming since March 2009. Usually, these flag formations resolve in the direction of the previous move, which is upward in this case.
Risk: ~30-70 pips
Reward: ~ 50-140 pips




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