Thursday, August 27, 2009

U.S. GDP, Jobless Claims and the Yen

As reports of a deceleration in global growth, and specifically in China, sent the carry trade lower overnight, my long EUR/JPY position was stopped-out at 133.81.

With daily support sitting around the 132 level, and hourly support around the 133 level, I got a chance to buy this pair back at the 133.30 level with a stop placed around 131.91 (see chart below).

U.S. GDP and Jobless claims figures are due out in about 10 minutes and expectations are relatively low:


GMT
12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q P) (forecast)-1.5% (previous) -1.0%

GMT
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 22) (forecast) 565K (previous) 576K

Low expectations means this is the U.S.'s to lose. A slightly better-than-expected number should help push the markets higher, along with EUR/JPY.

And if anyone is wondering why I chose EUR/JPY, as opposed to GBP/JPY, my "indicator" pair, EUR/GBP (see chart below), should give it away, as I wrote about previously.

No comments:

Post a Comment